3rd Quarter 2019 – Quarter Summary
October 22, 2019
3rd Quarter Market Summary
Over the past quarter, a flurry of international events dominated headlines, and in parallel, the global equity markets have experienced volatility without much direction. The global trade issues drove the news cycle, primarily driven by the conflict between the United States and China over tariffs.
In addition, recession fears have increased over the past few months with speculation from commentators that a recession could start globally in 2020 or even sooner. A recent Bloomberg article eloquently stated, “Taking a page from aviation, in which the stall speed is the slowest a plane can fly while still maintaining a level flight, the economic equivalent is the point at which growth is no longer self-sustaining.”1 The slowing economic growth globally does not automatically lead to a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but the airplane metaphor seems apropos. What impact this may have on markets is unknown since market returns are not correlated with economic cycles.
Regardless of the economic news, the volatility in the markets has been palpable. From July 1 to September 30, there were five days when the stock market lost more than 1%, and there were nine days when the market gained more than 1%.2 We are reminded that stock prices can and will fluctuate but this alone should not stipulate a change in course.
Bonds continued their strong performance, led by long-term government bonds, which were up 7.92% on the quarter.3 As long-term interest rates continued to trend lower, what stands out is how inflation expectations have continued to drop. Currently, 30-year inflation expectations have dropped to 1.65%, which is one of the lowest readings on record.4
The good news is that the purchasing power of a dollar is expected to stay relatively stable over the next few decades because of low inflation. The bad news is that for those receiving or expecting to receive Social Security, there are likely to be very small yearly inflation adjustments going forward according to market expectations.
Please contact your advisor if you have any questions about the market or your portfolio.
1 Reade Pickert, “U.S. Slowdown Spurs Concern Economy Is Near Stalling.” Bloomberg, October 1, 2019 (Updated October 2, 2019).
2 U.S. stocks as proxied by the S&P 500 Index.
3 Long-term U.S. Treasury securities as proxied by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury Bond Index Long.
4 “30-year Breakeven Inflation Rate [T30YIEM].” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, October 3, 2019.
Meet With Your Advisor
It is important to let us know when you have any changes in your investment objectives or financial circumstances. It is also important to review your account beneficiaries each year to make sure that no personal changes need to be made and the primary and contingent beneficiary designations are up to date and accurate. To notify us about any such changes that have occurred since we last met with you, please contact our office and schedule a meeting with your advisor.
We look forward to helping you stay on course.
PR Wealth Management Group, Inc. a Registered Investment Advisor, doing business as Legacy Wealth Management Group of Las Vegas, LLC. PR Wealth Management Group, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. PR Wealth Management Group, Inc. and Legacy Wealth Management Group of Las Vegas, LLC. are not affiliated companies. The home office is located at 990 Avenue of the Cities, Suite 4., East Moline, IL. 61244. The Las Vegas branch is located at 8235 S. Eastern Ave. Suite 160., Las Vegas, NV. 89123. Before making investment decisions please call our office at 702.545.0680 to receive a copy of PR Wealth’s Advisory Agreement and Form ADV Part 2A, which includes PR Wealth’s fee schedule. This information is intended to serve as a basis for further discussion with your professional advisors. Although great effort has been taken to provide accurate numbers and explanations, this information should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Web: www.Legacywmglv.com
Information is used with the express permission from Dimensional Fund Advisors. Dimensional Fund Advisors is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of the Dimensional funds carefully before investing. For this and other information about Dimensional funds, please read the prospectus carefully before investing. Dimensional funds are distributed by DFA Securities LLC.
Asset allocation and diversification do not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment-management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. There are no assurances that a portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark.
PR Wealth Management Group does not reinvest dividends and capital gains. Those amounts are used to rebalance a portfolio. In all the charts above, custodial fees and advisory fees are not included, and the analysis above does not account for advisory fees, custody fees, or tax consequences.
Nothing in this publication should be construed as investment advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, its accuracy and completeness and the opinions based thereon by the author are not guaranteed and no responsibility is assumed for errors and omissions. Any economic and performance data published herein is historical and not indicative of future results. All rights reserved. Please consult your personal advisor and investment prospectus before making an investment decision.
Copyright © 2019 by Forum Financial Management, LP
Legacy Wealth Management Group
Greg Feese CRPC®, Investment Advisor Representative. Advisory Services offered through PR Wealth Management Group, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. PR Wealth Management Group, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser, doing business as Legacy Wealth Management Group of Las Vegas, LLC. PR Wealth Management Group, Inc. only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. This is not a solicitation for sale of securities in any jurisdiction.. The investment advisory representatives referred to on this site may only transact business, effect transactions in securities, or render personalized investment advice for compensation, in compliance with state registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion.
© 2018 Legacy Wealth Management Group Las Vegas LLC.
Notice and Disclaimer
PLEASE NOTE: The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. When you access one of these web sites, you are leaving our web site and assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the web sites you are linking to. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided at these websites. Nor is the company liable for any direct or indirect technical or system issues or any consequences arising out of your access to or your use of third-party technologies, web sites, information and programs made available through this website.